Ghana’s economic recovery is gaining momentum, with stronger growth, declining inflation and an improving fiscal position, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that significant vulnerabilities remain and could undermine the gains if not properly managed.
In its latest assessment of the country’s economic performance, the Fund said macroeconomic stability was becoming entrenched, citing real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026 and a decline in inflation to 5.5 per cent in October.
The economy is projected to expand by 5.7 per cent for the full year, largely driven by investment, while the government’s primary surplus is on course to meet its end-year programme target.
Public debt has also declined significantly in recent years, providing some fiscal room for the government to pursue development priorities while maintaining debt sustainability.
The assessment formed part of discussions between an IMF team led by Mission Chief Ruben Atoyan and Ghanaian authorities from October 22 to November 4, 2026.
The Fund subsequently reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of its 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board.
The agreement marks an important stage in Ghana’s post-Extended Credit Facility (ECF) engagement with the Fund, as the country moves from a financing arrangement towards a programme focused on sustaining policy discipline and structural reforms.
Recovery faces external and domestic pressures
Despite the improving economic indicators, the IMF warned that Ghana’s recovery remains exposed to external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities.
A major concern is the recent decline in foreign exchange reserves, which the Fund said requires sustained corrective measures to restore buffers and strengthen the country’s capacity to withstand external shocks.
The authorities have responded by transferring foreign exchange intermediation responsibilities from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and increasing gold sale requirements for large-scale mining companies.
The IMF stressed that consistent implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, would be essential to rebuilding reserves.
Ghana also remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international gold, cocoa and oil prices, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions.
Domestically, significant debt rollover requirements, fiscal pressures in the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, and remaining weaknesses in the financial sector could complicate efforts to sustain the recovery.
The Fund therefore called for prudent monetary policy, stronger foreign exchange reserve buffers and the accumulation of a sinking fund to meet maturing debt obligations.
2027 Budget to balance fiscal discipline with investment
The IMF said the government’s 2027 Budget is aligned with the objectives of the PCI, with a primary surplus target of 0.5 per cent of GDP on a commitment basis.
The target is expected to preserve the gains from recent fiscal consolidation while creating room for priority investments under the government’s New Economy agenda.
These include job creation, investment opportunities and efforts to address the country’s infrastructure deficit.
However, the Fund cautioned that the availability of fiscal space should not translate into inefficient spending or a return to unsustainable borrowing.
“Rigorous project appraisal, competitive procurement, and strict expenditure controls will be critical to ensure value for money and preserve debt sustainability,” Mr Atoyan said.
The IMF also expects non-oil revenue to increase in 2027, supported by tax measures approved in July 2026, changes to customs and excise legislation and improvements in revenue administration.
Structural reforms remain critical
Beyond the headline economic indicators, the IMF emphasised that sustaining the recovery would depend on the government’s ability to address longstanding structural weaknesses.
It described progress under the reform programme as broadly satisfactory, highlighting the publication of the Fiscal Strategy Document, parliamentary approval of the new Cocoa Board Act and continued quarterly electricity tariff adjustments.
The authorities also completed a comprehensive review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule.
However, outstanding commitments include reforms to the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, the rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System, operationalisation of the Fiscal Council and preparation of the Fiscal Risk Statement.
The delayed publication of the audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s collection accounts was also identified as an area requiring attention.
The Fund further stressed the importance of stronger governance, including the adoption of the Conduct of Public Officers Bill, publication of the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan and improved oversight of state-owned enterprises.
It said these measures would help strengthen public trust and support private investment.
From economic stability to inclusive growth
While acknowledging the progress made, the IMF’s assessment highlights the need for Ghana to move beyond macroeconomic stabilisation towards an economy capable of generating sustainable and inclusive growth.
The challenge will be to ensure that improving economic indicators translate into stronger household purchasing power, decent employment, expanded business opportunities and improved living conditions.
The government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline while directing resources towards productive investments will therefore be central to the next phase of the recovery.
For Ghana, the latest IMF assessment presents a picture of an economy that has made considerable progress but still faces important tests.
Rebuilding foreign exchange reserves, managing domestic debt obligations, addressing financial sector weaknesses and controlling fiscal risks in key state-owned enterprises will be critical to preserving the gains.
Ultimately, the sustainability of the recovery will depend not only on meeting programme targets but also on the extent to which economic stability supports productive investment, job creation and improved living standards.
