The World Bank has maintained its forecast for Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 4.8% for 2026, citing resilient domestic economic activity, rapid disinflation and progress in the country’s debt restructuring programme.
The projection, contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, represents a moderation from the 6.0% growth recorded in 2025, but signals a continued transition towards a more stable economic recovery.
The World Bank said the progress made under Ghana’s debt restructuring programme has helped restore investor confidence, while improved macroeconomic conditions are supporting economic activity.
Services remain the main driver of growth, with the sector projected to expand by 8.0%, supported particularly by strong growth in information and communications technology (ICT), which is estimated to have expanded by 30.9%.
The industrial sector is also showing signs of recovery, with growth strengthening to 4.3%, compared with 2.4% previously. The improvement has been attributed largely to increased oil and gas production, alongside developments in the offshore petroleum sector.
The economic recovery has also been accompanied by a significant decline in inflation. Consumer inflation is projected at 8.0% in 2026, down from 14.2% in 2025, reflecting tighter monetary policy and relative stability in the Ghana cedi.
Public debt is projected at 52.6% of GDP, while the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP, reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation and reforms under the government’s IMF-supported programme.
The World Bank also pointed to improvements in investor sentiment following the completion of Ghana’s domestic and external debt restructuring milestones.
According to the assessment, the completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026 contributed to a sharp decline in sovereign spreads to about 239 basis points, while Ghana’s debt distress classification has improved from high risk to moderate risk.
Despite the positive outlook, the World Bank identified risks to the recovery.
Agricultural growth has slowed to 3.9%, partly due to disruptions in fishing activities. External pressures, including energy-market volatility linked to conflicts in the Middle East, could also affect economic performance.
The World Bank noted that monetary policy conditions remain relatively tight, with the Bank of Ghana maintaining its policy rate at 14% as it seeks to safeguard price stability.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects that Ghana’s economy will expand by 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028, indicating a gradual strengthening of growth over the medium term.
The institution also highlighted the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to support inclusive economic development, noting that broader adoption of AI solutions across public services and low-income sectors could significantly increase the number of Ghanaians lifted out of poverty over the next decade.
