International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), citing the country’s significant progress in restructuring its external debt and restoring investor confidence. The outlook is rated Stable.
The upgrade comes nearly eight months after Ghana reached a restructuring deal covering $13.1 billion in Eurobonds. According to Fitch, Ghana has now “normalised relations with a significant majority of external commercial creditors.”
The agency noted that only about $700 million in commercial external debt remains unresolved, which represents a relatively small portion of the overall restructuring effort. Holdout risks are considered low.
Fitch also highlighted the near-completion of Ghana’s external debt overhaul, with a memorandum of understanding on $5.1 billion in bilateral official debt signed in January 2025. An additional $1 billion owed to supranational entities and $840 million to official creditors is expected to be restructured by the end of the year.
Public debt as a share of GDP is projected to fall significantly, from 93% in 2022 to 60% in both 2025 and 2026. This reduction is driven by fiscal consolidation efforts, exchange rate gains, and sustained GDP growth. Ghana also recorded strong real GDP growth of 5.7% in 2024, with Fitch forecasting a continued positive trajectory through 2026.
The upgrade reflects Ghana’s ability to manage upcoming debt obligations, supported by growing international reserves, which reached $6.8 billion at the end of 2024. The country is expected to maintain foreign-currency-denominated debt service at 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
Despite these gains, Fitch identified lingering vulnerabilities. The interest-to-revenue ratio, projected at 26% in both 2025 and 2026, remains a constraint on the rating. Additionally, while local-currency market conditions are improving—with falling T-bill yields and a potential reopening of the bond market—fiscal discipline will be essential to sustain momentum.
Fitch maintained Ghana’s Country Ceiling at ‘B-’, indicating no material restrictions on the private sector’s ability to access and transfer foreign currency.
