“FRIENDS FROM THE MEDIA”: Ghana election polls and prophecies

BY EDITORIAL TEAM

Election seasons are often marked by a flood of polls predicting which candidate or party is likely to win. These polls, while statistically grounded, have inherent limitations despite the reported “margin of error.”

One major shortcoming is their inability to account for sudden changes in voter behaviour in the final days or even hours before the election. While polls can effectively track voting patterns, they often fail to capture last-minute shifts in the political climate that could sway the results. A candidate’s offhand comment or controversial statement just before voting begins can drastically affect their chances of winning.

Another flaw of election polls is that voters might express support for a candidate based on emotions or sentiments during the data collection period but, on Election Day, shift their allegiance to a candidate they believe has a stronger chance of winning. This behaviour, often driven by the desire not to “waste” a vote, underscores the gap between poll predictions and actual electoral outcomes.

Last week, Global Info Analytics and Fitch Solutions, in separate releases, both projected wins for NDC’s John Dramani Mahama. At face value, this is not surprising based on historical trends in Ghana, where a party is often met with public fatigue by its second term in office. Governments become the subject of perceived or real scandals, mismanagement, and wastage, among other issues.

Additionally, the tough economic conditions, which the ruling government itself has acknowledged while assuring that efforts are being made to turn things around, are another factor.

However, a closer look at the poll numbers reported by Global Info Analytics raises some concerns. For smaller and independent parties to garner over 7% of the votes seems unusual and defies any analysis of historical performance by smaller parties and independent candidates. 8 years ago, the PPP, which positioned itself as a ‘third force,’ performed woefully, garnering 0.99%. Four years ago, all smaller parties and independent candidates combined did not achieve more than 1.3%.

As noted earlier, while voters may initially be swayed by the fever of trying a new party, they often face the tough decision of choosing between the two leading parties on Election Day. By extension, some voters, at the time of data collection, may express dissatisfaction with the ruling government due to unfavourable economic conditions—a key basis for voting. However, through mass media influence, these same voters may ultimately decide not to renew the NPP’s mandate, though they might still change their minds on Election Day.

Although such variances are accounted for by the “margin of error,” to what extent can the trial-and-error decisions of voters during polls override this margin and affect electoral outcomes?

It would be overly ambitious for the NDC to believe that the NPP’s Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia will not even secure 30% of the votes, as some NDC followers have postulated on social media. Both the NPP and NDC have a significant number of loyal supporters who will always back their respective parties. Even in 2016, when former President Mahama lost overwhelmingly to then-candidate Akufo-Addo by over 1 million votes, Mr. Mahama did not receive less than 40% of the total votes cast.

In 2020, President Akufo-Addo, who faced many challenges, including issues in the financial sector, the revocation of licenses for many small-scale miners, and allegations of corruption and nepotism, still won the election—though not easily.

In this election, Mr. Mahama has warned his party members not to be complacent despite the polls predicting his return.

On Tuesday, outspoken Christian leader and senior pastor of Glorious Word Power Ministries, Rev. Isaac Owusu Bempah, stated that Mr. John Mahama will resume power in January 2025, brushing off any opposition. This stance is a departure from his earlier prediction on Metro TV’s Good Evening Ghana, where he stated that “God has rejected Mr. Mahama” and that “he can never be president again.”

What could have caused this turnaround from a man of God who many perceive as having a soft spot for the NPP?

While some NDC faithful are sceptical of Rev. Owusu-Bempah’s “repentance” and maintain that their candidate will win regardless, others believe he should be given a hearing.

The Sikaman Times holds the opinion that public prophecies about elections should have no place in democratic governance. Such actions and commentaries appear to be driven by self-promotion and attempts to influence the electorate toward a particular candidate.

We believe the 2024 elections will not be an easy ride for either party. Although the NDC’s chances are stronger, both parties have a shot at winning. After all, no one enters a contest with the intent of losing.